Charting the IMO’s course to net-zero

The shipping industry left London in October with more concerns than expected. At a meeting of the IMO, the stage was set to adopt and implement the first global regulation to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in any industry. However, following extensive negotiations, a majority of member states voted to adjourn the meeting by one year. 

“Unfortunately, the delay creates uncertainty around the IMO GHG Strategy,” says Dorte Kubel, Regulatory Affairs Manager, R&D Two-Stroke Engines at Everllence. Slated to take effect in 2028, the NZF was to introduce a global GHG fuel standard combined with a GHG pricing mechanism to require progressive reductions in the GHG Fuel Intensity (GFI) of shipping fuels — a sector using about 350 million tons per year. The purpose of the NZF is to implement the 2023 IMO GHG strategy — to reduce GHG emissions from international shipping by 20 percent by 2030, 70 percent by 2040, and ultimately to net zero by mid-century.

It is now unclear whether changes will be made to the framework or if the same agreement will be put to vote next year. Nevertheless, the IMO is expected to continue working on the guidelines needed to facilitate the NZF implementation, Kubel explains. There is still ongoing recognition of the need for globally consistent rules to support decarbonization. The urgency to act remains, she says: “Everllence will participate actively in the continuous work on the NZF. It remains a groundbreaking step, marking the shift from a strategy to reach net-zero toward concrete rules on emissions pricing and fuels.”

Fine-tuning the IMO NZF for real-world impact

The NZF is reducing emissions from international shipping in line with the IMO’s 2023 GHG strategy, explains Tore Longva, Decarbonization Director, Regulatory Affairs at the classification society DNV. “The recent postponement means the earliest potential entry into force is now March 2028. The IMO continues to develop the required guidelines, and the overall GHG strategy, including targets for 2030, 2040, and 2050, remains in place. A harmonized global regulatory framework is needed as fragmented regional regulations can create inefficiencies and uncertainty, which could hinder progress toward shared decarbonization goals.”

Despite the delay, both Kubel and Longva say that development of guidelines to implement the NZF remains essential to keep momentum up. Its credibility hinges on transparent reward calculations, clear life-cycle assessment (LCA) guidelines, and robust enforcement, notes Kubel. High zero or near-zero (ZNZ) fuel rewards would improve the competitiveness of green ammonia and green methanol, potentially supporting the business case for early adoption of alternative fuels. ”We urge the IMO to finalize these regulations as soon as possible,“ she adds.

Accurate accounting of GHG emissions from fuel used: the role of life-cycle assessment

The transition to net-zero in shipping will only become a reality when the full lifecycle emissions of ZNZ fuels are comprehensively accounted for, adds Florian Gabmeier, Regulatory Affairs Manager, R&D Four-Stroke Engines at Everllence. “To that end, the IMO LCA Guidelines serve as an essential technical tool for accurately accounting emissions across the entire lifecycle, enabling GFI calculations on a well-to-wake basis. Every gram of emissions — from fuel production to combustion — must be rigorously tracked. Fuel certification schemes complement this process by adding rigor and credibility.”

Such clarity underpins a transparent and robust system for a multi-fuel future, addressing issues such as the GHG footprint of biofuels from land-use change and methane slip from LNG, while clarifying the characteristics of different fuel pathways. The goal, Gabmeier notes, is to create a level playing field and provide shipowners with a solid foundation for investment decisions. “The effectiveness of the framework will depend on the balance between incentives and penalties, as well as clarity in implementation,” says Tore Longva.

Dual-fuel engines drive shipping’s shift to zero-emission fuels

Looking ahead to the fuel technologies themselves, Everllence sees strong market interest in engines designed for ZNZ fuels — especially methanol. The ME-LGIM two-stroke dual-fuel engine is already well established, with more than 220 orders for newbuilds and rising demand for retrofit solutions. Methanol dual-fuel technology is also available for four-stroke engines. As for ammonia, the first Everllence ME-LGIA two-stroke dual-fuel engines are expected to reach the commercial market by 2026.

“With our efficient, future-proof solutions, shipowners gain crucial flexibility through designs that enable dual-fuel operation and retrofit options,” says Gabmeier. “The availability of engines isn’t the issue — we are ready. The bottleneck lies in the scarcity of ZNZ fuels and the supporting infrastructure — the entire supply chain must be ramped up, accompanied by substantial investments in port infrastructure.”

In a multi-fuel future, predicting which fuel will dominate remains difficult and will likely depend on trade routes, says Longva. “Given the uncertainty around future fuel availability and costs, it is important for shipowners to consider options that allow for adaptability over a vessel’s lifetime,” says Tore Longva.” He expects strong competition among industries for access to ZNZ fuels and stresses the need for “close collaboration not only between fuel suppliers and shipowners, but also charterers who pay for the fuels, and ports responsible for infrastructure.”

Trust and enforcement: keeping the NZF on course

The experts agree that enforcement and control will be critical to the successful implementation of the NZF and, ultimately, to achieving its objectives. The IMO can draw on lessons learned from earlier regulatory measures, this time with clearer rules around GFI. “If fuel certification is well regulated, it will be a very robust framework,” says Longva. “That’s important, because trust is crucial.” Unlike previous regimes, the NZF would introduce an effective enforcement tool: Without compliance, ships can be denied their trading certificates and detained in port, explains Dorte Kubel.

“The framework’s progress depends on continued international negotiations and technical development, ” says Longva. “The postponement of the Net-Zero Framework highlights the need for greater clarity on its practical implementation. This period should be used by the industry and regulators to collaborate and develop solutions that can build consensus and strengthen the framework.”

In this context, Gabmeier emphasizes the need to maintain pressure on ZNZ fuel production and data quality. He notes that the NZF in its current form represents a carefully balanced international compromise — one that could also be adjusted over time. “If the decarbonization process slows, the IMO will have to strengthen the framework — for example, by increasing remedial unit prices to enhance the incentive effect on the use of ZNZ fuels,” he says.

Another key priority for the IMO is addressing the impact on vulnerable states expected to face higher costs, adding strain to their economies. As part of its strategy, the IMO is to introduce dedicated measures to assess these challenges and mitigate disproportionate negative effects.

The NZF is intended to provide a pathway toward net-zero, but the political climate and the implementation process require continued oversight to support the maritime energy transition. Longva closes: “The strategic direction remains unchanged; it is now essential to focus on shaping the framework so it can turn ambition into action. We encourage all stakeholders to work together to finalize the necessary guidelines and bring the new framework into force as soon as possible.”

About the author

Niels Anner is an independent journalist based in Copenhagen. He writes about science, health, technology, business and society in Northern Europe.